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Gartner’s Crystal Ball Turns Nasty
Only a month ago Gartner predicted that chip sales would be up 0.2% this year and drop 2.2% next year

Only a month ago Gartner predicted that chip sales would be up 0.2% this year and drop 2.2% next year.

Now it’s looked in its crystal ball again and foresees two years of back-to-back revenue decline, something that’s never happened before in the semiconductor industry, where year-over-year growth is the norm.

Based on preliminary data, the research house now thinks chips sales this year will be down 4.4% from last year to a total of $261.9 billion after plummeting an unprecedented 24.4% this quarter over last quarter.

Then it gets worse.

Next year it thinks they’ll be down 16.3% to $219.2 billion, maybe worse.

In a prepared statement, Gartner VP Bryan Lewis, said, not to compare this mess to the 2001 dot.com mess.

“This downturn is broad-based,” he said, “not limited to only technology, has a much different growth profile before the downturn, and has far less inventory buildup. Inventory levels this time have been monitored and more tightly controlled throughout the entire food chain, and this will help the market come back more quickly than in 2001.”

Semiconductors’ precipitous fall this quarter could also mean that some companies have over-corrected and kept inventory too low, which in turn could mean Q1 could see better-than-seasonal sales.

Gartner is expecting a comeback in 2010 with worldwide semiconductor revenues reaching $251.2 billion, 14.6%, followed by a 9.4% rise to $274.9 billion in 2011.

Cloud Computing Technology Contributors of 2009
10Gen, 3Leaf Systems, 6fusion International, Absolute Performance, Ajaxo, Alentus, Appirio, Appistry, Aptaria, Arena Maxtronic, Arista Networks, Asankya Networks, BitRock, BlueLock, Boomi , Box.net, Canaan Partners, Casdex, Chris Richardson Consulting, CITTIO, Cloud Architects, Cloud9 Analytics, CloudRamp, CloudScale Networks, Cloudscape.ws, CloudWorks, CNI Systems, CohesiveFT, CollabNet, Concentric, Cordys, Cronus Partners, CSRware, CuperTek, Cycle Computing, Dataline, Dell, DNAmail, eBay, Elastra, Engine Yard, Enki Consulting, Enomaly, Excelian, Flexiscale, Forrester, Fortress ITX, G.ho.st, Gear6, GigaSpaces, GraphLogic, GridGain, IBRIX, InfoQ, IntelePeer, IronKey, Iterative Designs, ITO America, Jamcracker, Joyent, JumpBox, Just Skill, Kaavo, Linxter, Mohr Davidow Ventures, MessageLabs, Mimecast, Model Metrics, Moderro Technologies, Moka5 (MokaFive), Mosso, Netmagic, NewServers, Ocarina Networks, Panorama Software, Parabon Computation, Parallels, ParaScale, Patni Computer Systems, Peer1 Networks, Platform Computing, PLX Technology, ProjectLocker, Promise Technology, Qlayer, QlikTech, Rackspace, RampRate, Red Hat, Reliance Globalcom, RightScale, Robson Taylor, Rogue Wave, rPath, Salesforce.com, Sapotek, Saugatuck Technology, ScanSafe, ServePath, ServiceCloud, SIMtone, SkillSoft, Skytap, SmugMug, SOASTA, Solace Systems, Spiceworks, SpiderOak, Symphony Services, Tap In Systems, Teneros, Terremark, Transitive, Trend Micro, Union Square Advisors, Unisys, Univa UD, uTest, Vertica, Weber Shandwick, Widen Enterprises, XCalibre, Zabovo.com, Zeus Technology, and Zuora.

Virtualization Technology Contributors of 2009

123Together.com, 361 Degrees, 3PAR, 8e6 Technologies, A10 Networks, Aastra, Accario, Accellion, AccessFlow, AceNet, ACMA, Acronis, Actional, activePDF, Acxiom, Adaptec, ADC, Adder, Adexis, Adtran, Agilysys, Agito Networks, AirMagnet, Akorri, ALADDIN Knowledge Systems, Alcatel-Lucent, Alert Logic, AlterPoint, Altor Networks, AMAX, AMCC, Amyuni, Apani, APC, APCON, APM Experts, Appistry, Applied Innovations, Apptio, Aquantia, Arastra, Aravo, Arbor Solutions, ArcSight, Areohive Networks, Array Networks, Arrow ECS, ARTEC – Computer, Aruba Networks, Asigra, Asoka USA, Aspera, Astaro Internet Security, Atempo, ATEN Technology, Attune Systems, AutoVirt, Avanade, Avaquest, Avaya, Aventiv-NomaDesk, Avocent, AVTECH, AXIOMTEK, BakBone, BBN Technologies, BDNA, BEA Systems, Bedsole, Benchmark Capital, Berkeley Varitronics, BigFix, Bivio Networks, Blade Network, Blue Lane, BlueArc, BluePoint, BlueStripe, Bobcares, Bosanova, Brigh Technologies, Brocade, CA, CalAmp, Capitial Trust Ventures, Cassatt, Catbird, Cayenne, CDG, Ceedo, Certeon, Champion Solutions, Check Point Software, Chip PC, CiRBA, Citihub, Citrix Systems, ClearCube, CommVault, Compass America, Compellent, Compugen, Computer Lab International, Concentsus, Configuresoft, Continuity Software, Coraid, Courion, Coyote Point Systems, cPanel, Credit Suisse, Crosswalk, CrystalTech Web Hosting, CSC, Data Domain, Databarracks, DataCore, DataDirect, Datagardens, DataPipe, DataSynapse, DC3 Solutions, Dell, EqualLogic, Desktone, Devon IT, Digipede, Doctrino Systems, DocuSign, DoubleTake Software, Dynamic Network Factory, DynamicOps, Ecora Software, eG Innovations, Egenera, Electric Cloud, Electrorack, Embotics, Emulex, Endeavors Technology, Enigmatic, Enomaly, Entuity, EqualLogic, Ericom, EVault, Evolving Solutions, Exinda, eXludus, Extentrix Systems, F5Networks, FalconStor, Faronics, FastScale, FastSoft, FOCUS Consulting, Fortinet, Fortisphere, Fugitive LLC, Fujitsu Systems, Fusepoint, FusionStorm, Gateworks, Getronics, Gibraltar Solutions, GlassHouse Technologies, GlobalFluency, GlobalSCAPE, GlobalSign, Green Hills Software, Grid Dynamics, GRIDtoday, groupSPARK, Hiperware, Hitachi Data Systems, Hubspan, Hurricane Electric, Hyper9, HyPerformix, Hyperic, I2 Technology, IGEL Technology, Ignite Consulting, Illumita, IMEX Research, Incipient, Insight Venture Partners, InstallFree, INSYSTEK,Integrien, Ipswitch, Isilon Systems, iTrinegy, KACE, Kaseya, KI Lipton, Kidaro, Kingston Technology, KnownHost, Lanamark, LeftHand Networks, Lenovo, Leostream, Liquid Computing, Lucid8, LynuxWorks, Magirus, Mailtrust, Mainline, ManageIQ, ManageSoft, Marathon Technologies, Marketo, Markitects, McAfee, Meridian IT, Metron, Microsemi, Microserv, Mid-Atlantic Computers, MIMOS, Mimosa Systems, Mindbridge Software, Miva Merchant, MonoSphere, Morph Labs, Mxi Technologies. mySoftIT, Nagarro, Namescape, Ncomputing, NEC, Nemertes, NeoPath, Neoware, Net Magic, NetApp, Neterion, NetEx, NetIQ, Netuitive, Network Appliance, Neverfail, New Age Technologies, New Idea Engineering, NewTek, Nexenta, NextIO. Nimsoft, Niyuta, NoMachine, Nortel, Novell, Novo Innovations, Old Road Computing, Omnitron, On The Avenue, ONStor, Opalis Software, Open Kernel Labs, OpenHosting, OpenSpan, Optaros, Opus Capital, PacketTrap, Palm, Inc., Panda Security, Pano Logic, Pattern Insight, Peak IP Solutions, PHD Technologies, Phoenix Technologies, Phurnace Software, Pillar Data Systems, Pinnacle Cart, Pivot3, Platespin, Proofpoint, ProServeIT, ProSync, Provision Networks, , Q1 Labs, QG Software, Qualys, Quest Software, R1Soft, Racemi, RACKWISE, Radiant Logic, Raritan, Raxco Software, Red Hat, Reflex Security, Regan Technologies, Resolution Enterprises, RF Code, Riverbed, RSA Security, Ruckus Wireless, Sagent Solutions, SanDisk, SAVVIS, ScaleMP, Scalent Systems, ScienceLogic, ScriptLogic, Seanodes, Secure Command, Secure Computing, Sentillion, ServInt, Shavlik, Silpion, SIMtone, Singularity Technologies, Sitemasher, SmarterTools, Socialcast, SoftLayer, SolarWinds, SolutionSet, Sonasoft, SSH Communications Security, StackSafe, Starfire, SteelEye Technology, StillSecure, StoneFly, Stonesoft, Stoneware, StorageCraft, StorageNetworking.org, StorMagic, Stratus, Sun Microsystems , Oren Tech, SunGard, SunView, Supermicro,, Surgient, SWsoft, Sycros, Symantec, Systar, Telecompute, The 451 Group, The Israeli Association of Grid Technologies, TheInfoPro, ThinkEquity Partners, ThinPrint, Third Brigade, Tideway, Tigerpaw, TOA Solutions, ToutVirtual, Train Signal, TRANGO Virtual Processors, Tresys Technology, Trigence, Tripwire, Twisted Pair Solutions, UK-2 Limited, Ulteo, UniPrint, United Devices, V.i. Labs, VaST Systems, VDIworks, VeeAm Software, Veodia, Verio, VeriSign, Vicom, Vigilar, VirtenSys, Virtera, Virtual Computer, Virtual Iron, VirtualizationChat.com, VirtualLogix, Virtugo, Virtutech, Visionapp, VisionCore, VKernel, VM People, VM6, VMLogix, vmSight, vThere, Vyatta, Wyse Technology, XDS, XenoCode, Xiotech, xkoto, Xsigo.

AJAX & RIA Technology Contributors of 2009
3Tera, Abaque, Accenture, AccuRev, AccuSoft, Active Endpoints, Active Inquiry, ActiveState, Actuate, Adaptive Blue, Adaptive Path, Adobe Systems, Afrous Dashboard, Agitar Software, AGOSYS, AJAX 13, Akamai, Alfresco, Allurent, Alpha Software, Altova, Amazon.com, Appcelerator, Appeon, Apple Computer, Applibase, , AppTrigger, Apress, Aptana, Aragon Consulting, Art & Logic, Ask Pivot, Asperon, Astreya, Atlassian, Aztecsoft, Azul Systems,, BackBase, Barracuda Networks, Baynote, BEA Systems, Bizwhazee, Black Duck, Blogtronix, BlueFolder, BlueTie, BondDesk, Borland, BOSSdev, Bottomline, BScaler, Bungee Labs, Burton Group, CambrianHouse, Canoo Engineering, Cassatt, Cast Iron, Catalyst Resources, Cenzic, Chordiant, CIGNEX, Cisco Systems, Cision, Citrix Systems, Claria, Clearspring, CodeFlare, Codign, Coghead, Cognizant, ComponentArt, ComponentOne, Conference Guru, Coradiant, Corent Technology, CoreSpeed, Corizon, Crescendo Networks, CSS Group, cStar Technologies, CSW Group, Curl, Cybage, Cynergy Systems, Dapper, Dassault Systèmes, DataDirect, Day Software, dCongo, deCarta, Dell, Denim Group, Denodo, Design Universe, DeviceAnywhere, Dialcom, Dice.com, DiscountASP.NET, DotNetNuke, Drangonfly, DreamFace Interactive, Dynamic Toolbar, DynaTrace, EffectiveUI, Egnyte, Ektron, Elastic Path, Elementool, EMC, Encanvas, ENOVIA Matrix One, EnterpriseDB, Ephox, esnips, ESRI, Etelos Systems, etouch, Evans Data, Exadel, ezAJAX, F5 Networks, FeedbackFX, Fig Leaf Software, Finetooth, Fiorano Software, firstRain, FiveRuns, Foldera, Force10 Networks, Fortify, Forum Systems, Fotango, Freewebs, froglogic, Funambol, FundingPost, Furtherahead.com, Fusion Technologies, Gaggle.Net, GemStone, genius.com, Genuitec, Gizmox, Glassbox, GoGrid, Gomez, Inc., GreenHat, GreenPoint, GridApp Systems, Groupware Technology, Helmi Technologies, Hitachi America, Hosting.com, HostMySite.com, HP Software, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, Ibiza Software, IBM, ICEsoft, ILOG, Impetus, iNetOffice, Infinilogic, Infragistics, Ingres, Inimit, Innominds, Innoopract, inpowr, InsideView, Instancy, Instantiations, Integration New Media, Intel, IntelliObjects, Intelliun, Interactive Networks, InterSystems, Isomorphic, IT Mill, ITtoolbox, JackBE, JadeLiquid, JasperSoft, Javeline, JBoss, JellyCloud, JetBrains, Jive Software, K2, Kaazing, Kapow, Keynote Systems, KonoLive, Krugle, Laszlo Systems, Lightstreamer, M/Gateway, Magic Software, Mainsoft, Manning Publications, Marathon Technologies, Mashery, Mashmatrix, MaxiScale, MB Technologies, Metia Software, Microsoft, Midnight Coders, Molecular, MomentumSI, Morfik, Neocleus, Neotys, Netfective, Netmite, NetSuite, Nexaweb, Nextapp, NextAxiom, NextDB.net, Nirvanix, Nitobi, Northwoods Software, Novell, Novulo, OASIS, ObjectWave, OpenLink, OpenLogic, OpenSpot, OpenWave, OPNET, OpSource, Oracle, OrangeHRM, OSS Nokalva, Parasoft, Passport Corporation, Pentaho, Perforce, Pervasive Software, Primavera Systems, PushToTest, QLogic, Quasar Technologies, Quest Software, Rackable Systems, Radialpoint, RadView Software, Rearden Commerce, Recursion Software, Red Hat, Roaring Penguin, Salesforce.com, SAP, Saven Technologies, Scalix, Servoy, SkillBuilders, Skyway, SL Corporation, SlickEdit, SnapLogic, SOA Software, Software AG, Software FX, Sonic Software, SoonR, Splunk, SugarCRM, Sun Microsystems, Sybase, iAnywhere Solutions, Symphoniq, TeaLeaf Technology, Tele Atlas, telerik, ThinkFree, TIBCO Software, TriveraTechnologies, Valtech, Visual Mining, VMware, Vocus, WatchFire, WaveMaker, Web Spiders, WebAppCabaret, Webtide, Wipro, WSO2, XAware, Xenos, Xythos Software, Yahoo!, Zapatec, ZCubes, Zimbra, ZOHO, and Zoovy.

About Maureen O'Gara
Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025. Twitter: @MaureenOGara

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