Gartner has updated its crystal ball - or gotten a new one - and now says that more PCs will ship this year than it expected because laptops, especially netbooks, are selling; it gives Windows 7 little to no credit.
In September Gartner was projecting a 2% decline; now it says the number will be up 2.8% to 298.9 million units.
It had to eat its words when it discovered that the third quarter was stronger than it allowed and that Q3's results "alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year" - suggesting that it missed the turn altogether.
It's now forecasting a 12.6% increase next year to 336.6 million units.
Unfortunately the new 2009 number doesn't translate into revenues.
Gartner figures they'll be off 10.7% this year to $217 billion, the result of an "unprecedented" decline in ASPs.
It says consumers are satisfying themselves with the cheapest "good enough" PCs and doesn't expect the trend to change in the short-term.
It also warns about being misled by Q4 compares. Since the bottom fell out in 4Q08 this year's assumed uptick could deceive folks into thinking the market is recovering faster than it actually is.
Gartner expects mobile shipments to reach 162 million units this year, up 15.4%, with netbooks accounting for 29 million units, spiking to 41 million units next year. But it's expecting their growth to slow "noticeably" next year.
Desktop shipments, it said, should be down 9% this year to 136.9 million units.
About Maureen O'Gara Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025. Twitter: @MaureenOGara
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